Football Preview 2010 (Part 2-Fantasy)

Last Year I didn’t give you a Fantasy Football Preview that was in depth, all I gave you were rankings, so this year I thought I’d ratchet it up a notch because in the process of writing this I’m also sharpening my draft readiness. I hope there is information in here that is useful.

PART TWO (FANTASY)

Two years ago the Fantasy Squawkers told you to draft a RB first no matter what, last year they said hey you better get yourself a WR, any guess what they are going to say this year? Um yeah that would be an elite QB, to be fair they still hedge that by ranking only one QB (in most ranks from ESPN/SI/CBS/Yahoo) in there top ten. I have always argued that if you want to enjoy your fantasy season and still have a great chance to win then go and get that QB that you want…so long as your guy is elite. After all you have to sit there and root for this guy every week, he may as well be a guy that is rock solid and is on a team that can win. There are four elites-Brees, Brady, Manning and Rodgers…I have all these guys in my top 10, after that you can go as high as you want with Schaub, Romo, Rivers, and even Ryan and I won’t look down at you. Fantasy drafting is the art of being a fake GM and in real life GM’s want depth…so what do you think you should do as a fake GM…get yourself some depth, this year there is lots of it. Bottom Line-Get Depth Get guys who are guaranteed touches...high upside guys will always be there...Thomas Jones will not.

My first draft is this weekend so I prepared by doing a handful of MOCK DRAFTS (best ones are available on ESPN Fantasy) where I drafted at different positions (given that in 3 of my leagues I am unaware of the draft order). The thing I noticed the most in these MOCKs was the amount of value in each round…I normally am a best guy on the board drafter but I found my self actually turning into a fill your positions guy. This year given the talent and amount of upside at the bottom of the draft I recommend you fill your rosters slots in the first 5 picks even if you have to draft QB, RB, WR, TE, then get another RB or WR…it ends up better when you get at least one elite at each position.

QB’s

THE CLASS-(1) Drew Brees (2) Tom Brady (3) Peyton Manning (4) Aaron Rodgers THE SOLID (5) Matt Schaub (6) Tony Romo (7) Joe Flacco THE UPSIDES (8) Bret Favre (9) Kevin Kolb (10) Matt Ryan THE DICEY (11) Philip Rivers (12) Jay Cutler (13) Eli Manning THE BACKUPS (14) Donovan McNabb (15) Alex Smith (16) Chad Henne (17) Vince Young (18) Matt Stafford (19) Carson Palmer (20) Matt Cassel

Think the top 6 are safe guys, last year I drafted both Brady and Romo and I was able to turn Romo into depth pretty early on, so if your team is shaping up nicely and you have a chance to double up on a QB then shake up your draft and go get him. I love the Patriot offense this year with two new TE’s and the emergence of Tate and Edelman, but I understand that Brady played at a lower level last year so there is some risk. I don’t love the Packers as much as most and sense that there may be some letdown. Guys like Stafford, Smith, and Palmer to me are all very solid backups so match them up the with worst bye week team you can and draft them late. {Sleeper season-Matt Cassel has a running game that will be great and a new offensive coordinator in Charlie Weiss so keep an eye on him they might catch a case of the winnings}

RB’s

THE CLASS-(1) Chris Johnson (2) Adrian Peterson (3) Frank Gore (4) Ray Rice (5) Michael Turner (6) Maurice Jones Drew (7) Steven Jackson THE UPSIDES (8) Cedric Benson (9) Ryan Grant (10) Rashard Mendenhall (11) DeAngelo Williams (12) Jonathon Stewart (13) Ryan Mathews (14) Knowshon Moreno (15) Beanie Wells THE DICEY (16) Matt Forte (17) Shonn Greene (18) LeSean McCoy (19) Pierre Thomas (20) C.J. Spiller THE BACKUPS (21) Jerome Harrison (22) Jamal Charles (23) Thomas Jones (24) Clinton Portis (25) Michael Bush

The problem with RB’s is the new committee system, I don’t know how Shonn Greene who is an injury risk can be on so many top ten lists, with LT there I don’t see him in the end zone more than 7 times max. I love KC and their running game but if you want Jamal Charles you better get Thomas Jones…same goes for the Carolina Boys of Williams and Stewart. I way overrated Matt Forte last year but this year I still see value (he is going in the fifth round…why not he will catch more passes if Jay Cutler can calm down about his arm which is better than Elways so he says). You can’t go wrong with the top 6 but I’m concerned with Steven Jackson he may get too much work early and get hurt. {Sleeper season-Jerome Harrison is going to rush for a 1000+ yards, get him in the late fifth or early 6^th and thank me later…P.S. if you miss out on him go grab Michael Bush).

WR’s

THE CLASS-(1) Andre Johnson (2) Randy Moss (3) Roddy White (4) Calvin Johnson (5) Larry Fitzgerald THE UPSIDES (6) Miles Austin (7) Steve Smith NYG (8) Marques Colston (9) DeSean Jackson (10) Brandon Marshall THE DICEY (11) Reggie Wayne (12) Greg Jennings (13) Sidney Rice (14) Anquan Boldin (15) Dwayne Bowe (16) Wes Welker (17) Michael Crabtree (18) T.J. Houshmanzadeh (19) Chad 85 (20) Steve Smith CAR THE BACKUPS (21) Donald Driver (22) Vincent Jackson (23) Mike Wallace (24) Steve Breaston (25) Braylon Edwards (26) Hines Ward (27) Mike Sims-Walker (28) Jeremy Maclin (29) Kenny Brit (30) Dez Bryant

One day I will be right about Calvin Johnson (I’ve been touting this guy since the beginning) and maybe that one day is today…this guy is a monster and the Lions are on the upswing, you could do a lot worse than him as your #1. The top 5 are all great after that I like the Austins, Jacksons, and Bowes of the world, but if you end up in that territory don’t forget to layer your depth accordingly…the guys you want to do that with are Welker, Crabtree, Houshmanzadeh, and Maclin. {Sleeper season-Houshmanzadeh will gather up 1000 yards and at least 6 TD’s as Pete Carroll wakes up the Seattle offense and Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith keep their coach’s pants on to the tune of 1100 yards and 8 TD’s}.

TE’s

THE CLASS (1) Antonio Gates (2) Dallas Clark (3) Vernon Davis (4) Jason Witten (5) Tony Gonzalez (6) Brent Celek (7) Jermichael Finley THE UPSIDES (8) Owen Daniels (9) Chris Cooley (10) Visanthe Shiancoe THE BACKUPS (11) Zach Miller (12) Kellen Winslow (13) John Carlson (14) Kevin Boss (15) Dustin Keller

Last year I told you Witten was the guy to get and I was a bit off, I think people are slightly overrating that Cowboy offense, it won’t be quite as dynamic as people think and they will have to use Witten quite a bit…he is still a premium TE to have. {Sleeper season-Three guys that will not kill you Jeremy Shockey, Tony Scheffler, and Rookie Aaron Hernandez will all serve as good trade bait/backups in this league, they are all way undervalued.

I don’t rank defense’s or kickers because I hate drafting them early…this year I may (but probably not) change my tune on that in 1 or 2 leagues going after a very good 49ers Defense/Special Teams who will face the likes of Leinart, Bradford, and Hasselbeck a combined 6 times!

Once my 4 (yes I know 4 leagues is too many but I think I can handle them) drafts have taken place I will pick one or two to chronicle on my blog and use that to offer advice and analysis…PLUS don’t forget I will be doing my usual Bet on this (Just don’t get mad me) segment each week, the first one will appear on the draft recap…but as a bonus maybe you should think about betting the over on the Lions 5 wins and Chiefs 6 ½ wins. Also (if you can find it) Baltimore is at plus money to win there division still so go after that!