October 30, 2010

Fantasy Football Update #7 2010 (Week 8)

Fantasy Football Update #8 and Week 8 Preview + My Picks


People are likening the NFL these days to reality TV, they say things like “this is the best reality TV you can find” well except for blurred out hot tub boobies and catfights I suppose they are right…(did I forget to mention the near fatal encouragement of overdrinking…(”hey my producer just bought us another bottle!”). I feel sorry that some of the biggest storylines this year have been reality TV-esque. I actually mostly hate reality TV, I don’t like seeing un-redeeming people sell out for fame, but that’s just me, I understand the entertainment value I suppose. So in week 8 of the NFL season, with a sport I love, I find myself slightly turned off by the Randy Moss/TomBrady hair catfight story or the Penis Pics Brett Favre story…you see the center of any sport is the game itself…we have too many sideline reporters too many sideline stories. Smart people who love the game just want it to be about the game, if we want to see people make bad decisions and do disappointing things, we can just look in the mirror and save some cash on the NFL package, come on NFL clean it up, and ESPN lay off the stuff that is just more fit for TMZ. Thankfully while my disappointment in this stuff lingers I have the NBA starting and the World Series still going (though it should be over by now MLB…baseball has to finish sooner!). Ok now let’s break down some fantasy and make some picks!

A stunning upset 105-97 loss to an Underdog StinkN Pete team has sent my Dirty Dawgs to a more modest 5-2 record entering in what is my worst “talent is on the bye” week. I was shocked to lose last week and blame it solely on the fact that I thought (TE) Antonio Gates wouldn’t play so I put (TE) Ben Watson in and he totally flat-lined with 1 point on one catch for 18 yds. Oh well we live and learn; now my mediocre and underdog bye week lineup must step up!

Week 8 lineup (subject to change)-QB T Brady, RB Ryan Torain, RB Knowshon Moreno, WR Deion Branch, WR Jabar Gaffney, TE A Gates, K MIA Dan Carpenter, D/ST Chiefs.

Without Roddy White, Ray Rice, Jeremy Maclin, and Johnny Knox this week I need the Broncos (with Moreno and Gaffney) to step up which seems unlikely because they are going all the way to England…I expect to lose, but anything’s possible!

Some advice from the guy who is 5-2-Most people plan and draft considering the BYE weeks, but some don’t it is time to take advantage of those who don’t, especially in those leagues where you have roster requirements (like must have 2 kickers and so on…). Trade Kickers and D/ST for good upside value if you can afford it. I was recently offered RB J Stewart of Carolina in one of my leagues…for the Dallas Kicker…seriously? Keep your eyes out and don’t be afraid of sending out offers.

Keep an eye on-Brandon Pettigrew (TE) for Detroit, he is a guy that plays well with Matt Stafford (QB) who I also like. This may sound crazy but I like the upside in the next few weeks of the Texans D/ST who after this week play the Chargers at home, then the Jaguars on the road, I think they are getting healthy and will start to gel finally. I’ve been on LeGarrette Blount (RB) now for awhile as a guy to stash away on your bench, well I think it may be time for him to start as a FLEX now, he is clearly the best talent at that postion on TB. He is no sleeper but if you have invested a roster spot on Felix Jones (RB) of Dallas it may finally payoff off for you with Romo out (nobody ever looked happier to break their collarbone ever…he was giddy that he was sidelined after that game) Dallas should run a heck of a lot more. Also I want to ask for permission to get back on the Matt Moore (QB) bus if there is still a seat on it, I think he is solid and am looking forward to seeing get another shot.

Good luck this week…it is brutal with all the byes so expect the unexpected and slot those high upside guys in and cross your fingers!

Bet on this, but don’t get mad at me-(Week 8)

2009 stats-66% on the Like em bets, 26% on the 3 If you can stomach em underdog picks, and 58% on the Parlay to try picks.

2010 stats-52% (9 for 17) on the Like em bets, 50% (9 for 18) on the 3 If you can stomach em bets, and 68% (13 for 19) on the Parlay to try picks.

With another 2 out of 3 underdog take in Week 6 we took Week 7 off to watch a little baseball (and if you liked the Giants and Rangers like I did…you maybe even cashed in on that), but now its time to get serious in Week 8, teams get defined, and things get tough.

Like em-People seem to be having a hard time defining the Dolphins thus far, you can count me as one of those people, but luckily I have defined the Bengals…not good, I’ll take MIA +1 ½ @ CIN, Now I hate to beat a dead horse but those people who picked on me for dogging on the Chargers…where are you now? Look Norv Turner is a total moron and nobody wastes talent like he does, plus anybody been watching this guy Kenny Britt lately? I like TEN +3 ½ @ SDG. Lastly with Jeff Fisher coaching against Norv Turner I expect garbage time points galore for the Chargers so this one (TEN @ SDG) goes Over 44 1/2 .

3 If you can stomach em-I’m 8 weeks into 3 If you can stomach em and still at 50%...this has never happened before, I look to keep it rolling in with these picks: Look I killed Tampa Bay in my preseason column (Football Preview 2010) but I may have to eat my words, Josh Freeman and the guys have some swagger, I’ll take TB +ML @ AZ this week. I would love to bet the Packers against the Jets but I’m holding back as I would love to stay above 50% for another week, so let me give you CAR +ML @ STL instead, the Panthers have too good a coach to just pack it in and in the beginning of the year I really did like Matt Moore…I mean sort of. Lastly and those who read me regularly (and there aren’t many of you!) know where I may go with this one…oh yes my favorite team to bet ML against…the Indy Colts, they have looked beat up, and very pedestrian thus far…mediocrity continues as the Texans outright beat them on Monday Night…seriously take HOU +ML @ IND, The Texans are coming around this year!

Parlay to try-Roll with Over 42 in the SEA @ OAK game as these two teams will be at 30 before halftime, then tack on Over 45 in the WAS @ DET game, and finally add HOU +5 ½ @ IND on Monday night…and you should maybe hedge that if you make it that far…just a thought.

2 to win in College Football-(3-3-1 in 2010)-Ok so we have a very mediocre college record so far so I am going to take this week off so I can re-assess the College landscape and come back firing!

Results will be posted after Week 8

Good Luck in all Fantasy and Reality!

October 24, 2010

On a bye

We had a great week 6 time to enjoy are winnings and take a bye week so we can go to capital grille and have a nice ribeye steak...Good luck to all in Fantasy and Reality!

October 16, 2010

Fantasy Football Update #6 2010 (Week 6)

Fantasy Football Update #6 and Week 6 Preview + My Picks

I had a monster 154-72 win with my Dirty Dawgs Fantasy Football team this week which has me sitting comfortably at 4-1 on the year.

Week 6 lineup (subject to change)-QB T Brady, RB Ray Rice, RB R Torain, RB B Jackson, WR R White, TE A Gates, K Cowboys, D/ST Saints.

Decided to go three RB’s and just hope one is good and one breaks out, with White and Gates playing so well I feel I’m able to take a risk like this, that said I may change my mind and put Knox, Crabtree, or Maclin in place of B Jackson by kickoff.

Some advice from the guy who is 4-1-TRIM THE FAT Ok so you know who is strong on your team and some of us are lucky enough to have a surplus of talent, but not all that talent will fit on your starting roster so I highly suggest starting the process of trimming the fat on your roster to get the playoff starting lineup you want. Depth is good, but if you can move some of it for guys with great playoff schedules then you are doing your team a favor. Recently in a deep Keeper League I am in, I made a move to trade for TE J. Finley even though I know he is most likely out for the season…look keeper leagues play by different rules and if you have a chance to go grab somebody like Finley so you can keep him and build around him next year, I am always going to say go for it…Good Players always play to win, but good franchise players always play to win while keeping an eye on the future.

Keep an eye on-Deion Branch is a guy I think deeper leagues should add, Brady loves him and he is going to get the ball. Ryan Torain who is owned widely now, is still a guy I want to push on you, this guy is “the guy” for Skins so he will be good, and I believe a #2 Fantasy RB by years end. Lastly sleeper WR’s come and go, but I have a feeling a star is born in Washington with WR Anthony Armstrong.

Bet on this, but don’t get mad at me-(Week 6)

2009 stats-66% on the Like em bets, 26% on the 3 If you can stomach em underdog picks, and 58% on the Parlay to try picks.

2010 stats-57% (8 for 14) on the Like em bets, 46% (7 for 15) on the 3 If you can stomach em bets, and 66% (10 for 15) on the Parlay to try picks.

A decent week for us in week going 6-5-1 overall in our picks, and even though we went (yet again) 2 out 3 on our parlay (3-teamer), we still cashed in on 1 underdog and 2 strong Like Em bets. (Things we learned-I really believed the Bills behind Ryan Fitzy would be able to get a win at home against the Jags, but that Bills D is just horrible.) This is another tough week for NFL gamblers…let’s see what we got.

Like em-NWE -3 vs. BAL, look some people out there think the Ravens are the class of the NFL, but the class of the NFL made the Hoody cool again a few years back, and let’s not disrespect Brady’s 22 home win streak and Belichick’s 7-0 record after the bye. It is a tough week and I flirted with the idea of going with the Dolphins +4 vs the Packers, but I’d rather give my Saints one more chance to cover so take NO -4 @ TB. The Last lock seems to be easy so be cautious here, take Over 45 in the SDG @ STL game, I would have thought for sure it would be more like 47.5-49.

3 If you can stomach em-So KC did some good things against the Colts but couldn’t seal the deal in week 5, no problem Jason Campbell and the Raiderzzzz saved the day delivering on a ML bet. I want to go crazy this week right off the bat and give you one of my MORAL HIGH GROUND PICKS…take CLE ML @ PITT just because we don’t think sexual assault is cool and maybe the gods give Colt McCoy a little good fortune in this game. For the less ballsy players give Chad Henne and Fins some respect by saying screw you to the +4 and take MIA ML @ GNB, The Packers are beat up and Aaron Rodgers is concussed…I think the Fins steal this one. Lastly I wanted to take Denver because I believe in the Broncos passing attack and I think the Jets can get spread out and give up big yards in the air, but I am going to go for a bigger payout in the bye week refreshed Seahawks…so try SEA ML @ CHI and hope to god that Jay Cutler is being Jay Cutler and throwing to the Seattle defense early and often.

Parlay to try-2 out of 3 again on the Parlay so let’s try something different. Take Over 42 in the ATL @ PHI game, then add on Over 41.5 in the OAK @ SF game, while rolling large on the Over 44 in the DET @ NYG game, and finishing up (and hedge this if it works out to this point) with the Over 45 in the TEN @ JAC game…who doesn’t like rooting for points !

2 to win in College Football-(2-2-1 in 2010)-Tough to pick this week but I think Under 53 ½ in the Iowa @ Mich game is likely and I really think NEV (Wolf Pack) -6 ½ shouldn’t have any problem with Hawaii even on the road.

Bonus 2 Team Teaser-(for those who get into the finer points of gambling) Take PITTSBURGH +4 {-2 to start}@ SYRACUSE and Take NEVADA -1 {-7 to start}@ HAWAII for a -110 @ Team Tease…then thank me later.

Results will be posted after Week 6

Good Luck in all Fantasy and Reality!

October 9, 2010

My Football Picks! (Week 5)

A sneaky 74-72 win for me in week 4 catapults my team to a solid 3-1 record despite not having great weeks out of Brady and Rice. Taking the week off (just like my Pats) from Fantasy Yakety Yak to catch up on sleep but didn’t want to deprive the many fans (um 9) from my picks…enjoy.

Bet on this, but don’t get mad at me-(Week 5)-2009 stats-66% on the Like em bets, 26% on the 3 If you can stomach em underdog picks, and 58% on the Parlay to try picks. 2010 stats-55% (6 for 11) on the Like em bets, 41% (5 for 12) on the 3 If you can stomach em bets, and 66% (8 for 12) on the Parlay to try picks.

A good week for us in week 4 going 6-9 overall in our picks, and even though we went (yet again) 2 out 3 on our parlay (3-teamer), we still cashed in on 2 underdogs and 2 strong Like Em bets. (Things we learned-Really misjudged the Seattle offense and St. Louis Defense as I suggested Over 39 in that game, we live and learn each week). After a good week it’s my custom to take some chances, so let’s hit it out of the park.

Like em-I’ll take ATL -3 @ CLE The Browns got their win and those who think they can string wins together with that roster are nuts, though they are better than awful they ain’t good. KC +7 ½ @ INDY, look they are coming off a bye and will hang with a bad Indy defense, I’ll take more than a TD. Lastly fool me once…um…you gotta fool me more than once, I’ll take Over 42 in the STL @ DET game, maybe Seattle let me down, but the Lions, I’ll take my chances (but if it doesn’t work out I’m off this bandwagon).

3 If you can stomach em-Some great Dogs this week, we went 2/3 last week…let’s take some chances. Let’s start slow taking BUF +ML vs. JAC, Ryan Fitzy can throw, and we know the Jags love to let people throw…the Bills get a clean win this week. Now we step it up a notch with OAK +ML vs. SDG, I love M Bush RB for the Raiders and we all know how I feel about Norv “sleeps through the first 6 weeks” Turner…I could see a 27-24 home upset by the RAAIIIDERZZZ! Lastly I can’t help myself here, take KC +ML (and coming off the bye) @ INDY for a big winner! Frankly I can’t justify this one, I hate the Colts and Love Crennel and Big Fat, but lovable Charlie Weiss, so just bet it and root for Matty Cassel Magic!

Parlay to try-We are due to snag a 3 teamer so let’s try to be smart about this one, The Over 42 in the DET vs. STL game (STL can’t screw us twice in a row can they?), Over 41 in the BUF vs. JAC game, and lastly close it up with a NO -7 @ ARI play.

3 to win in College Football (1 for 2 in 2010 50%)-I’m going to take a chance on Mich St. +4 ½ @ MICH, I just think the Rich Rodriguez show can be sorted out by good coaches. I’ll continue on with my Notre Dame goes on a streak now theory with ND -6 vs. PITT. Lastly I really like Auburn -6 ½ vs. Kentucky, even on the road the great coached Auburn knows how to take care of business.

Results will be posted after Week 5

Good Luck in all Fantasy and Reality!

October 4, 2010

Movie Review #47 (The Social Network)

The Social Network (2010) Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield Directed by David Fincher

“You don’t get to 500 million friends without making a few enemies” is the tagline for David Fincher’s (Fight Club, Zodiac, Benjamin Button, and Seven…all good BTW) latest film and it is quite fitting. The Social Network is the story of the Facebook creators and their long complicated road to the billionaire club…but that’s not really what it’s about, it’s really about you wanting to be liked…you post something clever on Facebook and you sit at your computer looking at something else occasionally refreshing to see if anyone has commented or laughed at your clever post…you get so happy when they do and you crave more…you (and by “you” I mean all of us) want to be liked, Mark Zuckerberg (Creator) really wanted to be liked, accept in your very early 20’s sometimes when that’s your goal, you do stupid things attempting to attain that goal. This film brilliantly depicts a man that loves to be an a**hole, but no matter how stone he is, underneath he really just wants to be liked (no spoilers but the beginning and ending scenes really spell it out for you). Fincher and Sorkin really do an excellent job telling the story they want to tell, making it both entertaining and frankly quite educational. I really liked this movie, now I am bias considering how much I love Sorkin (who wrote my favorite TV Show of all time in The West Wing), and how much I respect the filmmaking abilities of David Fincher. Even considering my bias though, I am hard pressed to find another movie that is quite as smart as this one in this year’s bag of crap that Hollywood has lit on fire and threw on our front porch so far this year. This film will be very near the top of Best of the Year list and I’m grateful for finally seeing a film that is both intelligent and entertaining…we need more…please Hollywood…no more Transformers and Katherine Heigl!

The Social Network is the story of Mark Zuckerberg (played brilliantly by fine young actor Jesse Eisenberg who was great in last year’s Adventureland) who is the main founder of Internet juggernaut Facebook. When you invent something like Facebook you are “inspired” by many things (in this case a girl, an idea, and exclusivity are few of them), but once your monster is created some of those people that inspired you on your way are going to want a piece of the pie…and frankly they probably deserve it. The most important relationship of the film is with Mark and his best friend and partner Eduardo Saverin (played by the next Spiderman Andrew Garfield) who is painfully and slowly pushed out of the company over time. The most entertaining character however (and after he is introduced he dominates the film…which I think is ok even though the storytelling gets a tad hazy after he is introduced) is Napster founder Sean Parker (played well by Justin Timberlake P.S. go Youtube “history of rap” with him and Jimmy Fallon…BRILLIANT!), he really gets things moving in a direction where conflict is inevitable. Sorkin isn’t trying to hide any of the messages (or cautionary tales) in this film in nuance or clever dialogue, he actually makes a brilliant move by opening the movie with one major conflict and then all but spelling out another when Lawyer Marylin Delpy (played solidly by Rashida Jones) delivers one of the best lines of the film, Sorkin doesn’t want us to decide for ourselves about these guys, he wants to tell us what it must have been like to be a 24 year old billionaire. This film is great on so many levels and I do believe it has some rewatchabilty factor to it, I highly recommend it and think it is a shoe-in for a Best Picture nod. Now stop checking your old girlfriends relationship status and go see this movie!

(The Shawshank Scale 1-10) “If you guys were the inventors of Facebook, you’d have invented Facebook” classic Sorkin, The Social Network is so well done and so clever. I don’t care how much of it is accurate, I care how much could have been, and how simple the conflicts are…this film is a very good 8.0 on the scale and could with time move even higher.

Food For Thought: Fincher is doing the American version of the very popular book The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo out in 2011, which I am really excited about, while Sorkin is wrapping up the film version (which he wrote) of the great baseball book, Moneyball also coming out in 2011. For Jesse Eisenberg there is an odd comedy called 30 Minutes or Less coming out next year about a pizza guy being kidnapped and as mentioned before Andrew Garfield will be the next version of Peter Parker in the latest incarnation of Spiderman, that’s aiming for 2012.