Fantasy Baseball Update #4: Now that steroid use is diminishing is it a pitchers league again? And “People can’t Handle the highs and Lows”…can you?

A quick side-note: If you haven’t seen it yet, check out ESPNs 30 for 30 series…it’s great, and a must see for all Fantasy Players is the recent episode called “Silly Little Game” about the creators of Fantasy Sports, it’s really good television.

55 games into 2010 what do we know? Well pitching is back and bloated batting numbers are down, Ken Griffey Jr. hung it up about a year too late, and the San Diego padres are in first place. Beyond that I still wouldn’t get too comfortable with what you see out there…baseball is long season and you have to ride the streaks. In the world of fantasy it is the dog days of summer where you can win your league (and I know this is going to sound goofy so bear with me) but outworking your other league members can put you back in it or win you your league. Now is the time where people fade off and don’t check stats every day, now is the time where Team Devil Dogs or Three Pujols and a Lady go on vacation and forget to set lineups, and now is the time where some kid comes up to fill in for a banged up veteran and gets hot. In one of my 100 favorite films of all time (and people if you read this blog you know my passion for movies) is Rounders and my favorite line from that film is “People Can’t Handle the Highs and Lows”, and although the line is about poker it applies to many things including fantasy…guys will wear down, get tired of daily lineup checks, and miss opportunities…and so will you and I…but if we minimize the lows…hey you might actually win the thing.

Stock Up: Jose Lopez might be getting his season back on track with a 333avg, 2 HR’s, and 7 RBI’s over the last 7 days; he has been dropped in many 10 team leagues and is a notorious 2^nd half player. Another perennial fill in guy that seems to go back and forth on the available list is Marlon Byrd who is hitting 312 with 32 runs scored…he is an everyday guy and he won’t hurt you. Also it is time to go stock up again on Garrett Jones who has 3 HR’s and 5 extra base hits over his last 7 games (he is owned in 90% of standard leagues but should be owned in all leagues). You can probably safely try Javier Vazquez again if you dropped him or he was dropped in your league 16 K’s and 3 earned runs over his last 14 innings. Stock way up on a guy that is owned in all leagues-Clay Bucholz he and Jon Lester are keeping the Red Sox alive with their ACE like ways (they are now 8-3 and 7-2 respectively with ERA’s under 3.00). I obviously don’t need to mention Jimenez of the Rockies who is having a “Pedro in 1998” kind of year…he is ridiculous good and I believe that although he will slow a bit…a bit may mean a 1.65 ERA at the end of the year…(currently 0.93).

Deep Sleepers-My last month guy Jhoulys Chacin slowed up a bit and is probably a spot start guy in most leagues…but you may want to try Sam LeCure (Reds) as a pickup in deep leagues and a spot starter in 10 team mixed leagues…he has good stuff and I think may stay in the rotation for awhile…(this Cincinnati team has depth…look for them to be able to make a trade if they need to and find themselves in the playoffs…remember they still have A Chapman the Cuban fireballer waiting in the minors…little BTW for all you “futures” betters out there). Also if you haven’t noticed yet John Ely (Dodgers) and Gio Gonzalez (A’s) are two guys that can hold roster spots for you.

Time to take a closer look at: Mike & Mike…that is Mike Pelfrey and Mike Napoli...Mike Pelfrey is 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA, the guy has won 4 starts in a row and during that streak has given up a TOTAL of 4 runs…I am not the type to trust a Mets pitcher…but jeez it’s time to take a closer look at Mike Pelfrey (pick him up or trade for him I don’t think this is a fluke). There are not that many good catchers in fantasy, so if you are the team that doesn’t have McCann, V-Mart, or Mauer then you have to sort of pick your poison when it comes to catchers…for my team the choice is Mike Napoli (only 70% owned in most leagues!) he is 270, 9HR, and 25 RBI’s…he won’t hurt you with too many 0-4 days and is seriously good for 20-25 HR’s. The Angels will even him play him at first every now and again.

Some advice from the guy in 4^th place-Keep a close eye on BVP (batter vs. pitcher) matchups and don’t be afraid to slot a guy in there who has a good thing going against a starting pitcher. If you slot in hot guys for a week or two you’d be surprised how much ground you can make up…trust me on this, in one of my leagues it was my only way back into semi-contention. Beware of transaction limits and roster rules before you try this strategy as all leagues are different…personally I’m an unlimited guy but I understand the thought process for limited transaction leagues as well. (Other League Status: 1^st, 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, and 7^th in my all pitching league where I am having big troubles).

Alright so at last check my #1 (or at least my favorite of my five leagues) team (The Boston Lagers) was sitting in 6^th place…with some slot in BVP guys and some solid pitching from my Ace’s I find myself in 4^th and consistently staying in the 3^rd through 5^th range…progress but a lot of work left.

Boston Lagers (ESPN-Custom) 10 Team, Standard scoring (with XBH extra base hits and OBP on base percentage) as the two extra stats in hitting and (K/9 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and BAA batting average against) as the two added pitching stats. Roster = C, 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, UTIL. Current Place-4th

This league has mostly savvy fantasy players with a handful of baseball fan newcomers…the draft was competitive (see draft review in Fantasy Update #1) and the talent is spread out.

HITTING:

C-Mike Napoli-After losing Posada with too many D.L. guys it was great to fall back on Mike who has done a great job and provided me with some much needed power.

1st-Prince Fielder-I stopped offering him in trades but still waiting for the big power surge.

2nd-Dustin Pedroia-He has dipped to a 261 avg…very odd, but his recent speed has helped.

3rd-Jose Bautista-I picked up Bautista off the scrap heap two weeks ago and he is leading my team back into things…it is a crazy power surge (18 HR’s) and I only can hope he keeps it up.

SS-Rafael Furcal-I settled into Furcal as my everyday guy for now, I was getting tired of the A-ram, Scuturo, and Pennington SS carousal.

OF-Andre Either-Back from a D.L. stint and I hope he goes right back to knocking the cover off the ball.

OF-Carlos Lee-On the trade block and he has played better, I want to move him (because I have a hard time benching him) but not many takers as you can imagine.

OF-Vernon Wells-Continues to shock…broke up a no-hitter with a two run blast the other day against the Yanks…I’m still in shock that he is this good again.

UTIL-Josh Hamilton-I gave up a lot to get him earlier this year via trade and he has been great…301 avg, 11 HR’s, and 33 RBI’s.

UTIL-Lance Berkman-Another guy I would like to trade if I could get value for him, but for now his 6 game hit streak and his solid 372 OBP give me depth.

UTIL-Corey Hart-I fear his hot streak that took him to tops in the N.L. in homers (14) is about to end…but in fantasy you have to ride the streaks.

BENCH- I have made a ton of moves since last check trading Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez…while acquiring Corey Hart, Mike Napoli, Aramis Ramirez (who I never play), and Jose Bautista. Those guys have helped me solidify my infield…and breaking news as I was writing this column I saw that some crazy person in my league dropped Jayson Werth…so I got a new toy it looks like. I have Ellsbury on my D.L. and with the trading of Figgins it is in my brain that steals may not be in the equation for my team…at least for now…(I rank 7^th currently in steals).

PITCHING:

Liriano has come back to earth a bit with 22 runs given up over his last 7 starts, but he is still a viable Ace or at least and Ace-b so I just pick my spots with him. With both Josh Johnson (2.10 ERA) and Jered Weaver (2.74 ERA) I am getting great quality and consistency. Matt Cain has also been good with a 2.36 ERA, now if his team could just score some runs. I try not to streamline too many guys because I have been on a bad streak lately (Bonderman my last one giving up 7 runs over 5+ yesterday)…so I am just hoping to stay steady and talk myself out of questionable guys for now…to make up for those streamline wins I took a shot with Javier Vazquez who is on the Yankees (who score a lot) to see if he can bring me some W’s…his leash is short though. My Relief core is back up to par because I picked up Heath Bell via trade (Figgins and Gutierrez) and grabbed Bobby Jenks again…so that gives me two more closers to go with my rocks Papelbon and Ryan Franklin. I have Josh Beckett sitting on the D.L. just hoping for something positive…but it doesn’t look good.

I hope to make more progress next time I post and wish all the best to you and fantasy teams…post comments or questions as always. Go Celtics!! in their quest to beat the Lakers…and why on earth does Rondo not have a nickname yet?

Good luck to all in Fantasy and Reality!