Baseball Preview/Fantasy Preview

So the boys of summer are back and it’s time for our second annual baseball preview and predictions, along with the Fantasy Baseball Preview 2010.

Last Year (In not my finest hour) I predicted a World Series of: Red Sox vs. Mets…hmm it didn’t quite work out that way as the Yankees rolled on the Phillies to get yet another title. But I have shaken that off, next year has arrived, and I’m ready to take another crack at it.

Here it is for your scrutiny the 2010 Predictions for MLB:

AL East Winner-Red Sox (Um Yeah I’m most likely always going to go Red Sox here)

AL Central Winner-White Sox (Went Tigers last year…ended up the Twins)

AL West Winner-Mariners (Yes I tried this last year and it didn’t work)

Wild Card (AL)-Yankees (I do like the Tigers and Angels as well)

NL East Winner-Phillies (Last year went Mets, not going to do that again)

NL Central-Reds (You have to take at least one really crazy one, I like’em)

NL West-Giants (Same as last year, too much pitching on this team)

Wild Card (NL)-Braves, Cards, and Astros all intrigue me, but I will go Cubs.

Divisional Round

Red Sox over White Sox/Mariners over Yankees

Giants over Cubs/Reds over Phillies

ALCS/NLCS

Red Sox over Mariners/Giants over Reds

World Series

Giants over the Red Sox in 7 games…MVP Tim Lincecum

Fantasy Preview-The Rankings

Alright now Fantasy Time, I will go 5 deep for the outfield and 5 deep everywhere else…I disagree with ESPN more this year than last year. I finished 2^nd in both my leagues last year, and in one league literally just a hair off the win, it went to the last day which was fun. My general philosophy is to wait on pitching but I am re-thinking that strategy for a few guys, I have drafted one league already and could not bring myself to take one of the top pitchers, so I waited again. I have my main draft on March 20^th (This will be the only league I chronicle on the blog…though I will give mini updates on the other two). So let me expose my rankings and philosophy this year, so all of that league can get an idea what I’m doing…maybe this is why I haven’t won yet?

First Base: The position is deep, when you can wait until the late 4^th round or early 5^th rounds to get guys like Kevin Youkilis and Joey Votto, you know the position is loaded. If you aren’t in love with the any of the top guys, this is a position you can wait on.

1. Albert Pujols-Simply the best.

2. Miguel Cabrera-I think he is a great player to build your team around, last year 34HR, 103RBI, and a 324AVG…look for him to be even better this year.

3. Ryan Howard-45HR, 141RBI, and his 279AVG isn’t killing you, if you get Howard you can stop worrying about RBI and HR’s stats for the next two draft rounds.

4. Prince Fielder-Love his game and his 46HR, 141RBI, 299AVG are as good as it gets, he is looking for a contract, so look for a great season.

5. Adrian Gonzalez-I think he comes to Fenway before the year is over, and that means a big 2^nd half…this guy is an improving young hitter.

Bust Alert-Mark Teixeira-He starts slow every year, last year he put up 39HR, 122RBI, and a 292AVG…but I’m predicting drop offs in all those categories…33, 105, and 288.

Sleeper Favorites-I love both Lance Berkman (going in late 8^th round) and Billy Butler (going in mid 8^th round) to have great years.

Second Base: You have to go after a guy early, because the pool gets thin and fast, here at 2^nd base. The only first round guy is Chase Utley who is great, after that there are maybe 3 or 4 guys you can really trust, and then you have to roll the dice on the Jose Lopez’s of the world…scary

1. Chase Utley-31HR, 93RBI, 18 Steals, and a 282AVG…the guy is gold at this position.

2. Dustin Pedroia-115Runs, 15HR, 72RBI, and a 296AVG…and that’s a down year?

3. Ian Kinsler-I find him to be shaky but his 31 Steals last year sneak him into this spot.

4. Brandon Phillips-20HR, 25 Steals, and a decent 276AVG, I think he does better this year.

5. Robinson Cano-25HR, 85RBI…it’s hard to keep him off this list.

Bust Alert-Brian Roberts-I traded him last year after two separate slumps…just not an everyday guy for me, and he is getting older…I think it gets worse.

Sleeper Favorites-I think Ben Zobrist is out to prove he is an everyday guy and not a fluke, I am also willing to risk it with Aaron Hill 36HR and 108RBI last year…I think he can repeat.

Third Base: More depth here at third, but also value…love Youk, A-Ram, and even Gordon Beckham…all going after the 3^rd round.

1. Alex Rodriguez-Man I hate this guy, but why fight it.

2. Evan Longoria-A monster out there, I think this might be his best year yet.

3. David Wright-I picked him in the first round last year…mistake by me, but I think if you get him in the early third or after you are doing well.

4. Kevin Youkilis-Just a solid player, who you never have to worry about.

5. Pablo Sandoval-Kung Fu Panda is a lock for 315AVG or higher, and his 20+ HR’s help as well.

Bust Alert-Ryan Zimmerman-Call it a hunch, I think this is an injury plagued year…I can’t bring myself to draft him, even when the value is good.

Sleeper Favorites-Again I really like Gordon Beckham, I think he is a good player and worth some risk, in addition to that don’t forget how good Aramis Ramirez can be, his upside is top five like.

Shortstop: If you swing in miss in the first few rounds, you might be scrabbling. Don’t worry I have a 12 or 13 round guy that will save you…Alexei Ramirez…he is so underrated.

1. Hanley Ramirez-The natural, just a ball player, helps you in every stat.

2. Jimmy Rollins-I think he bounces back in a big way.

3. Jose Reyes-It’s a lot to ask for health, but I think he is out to prove he is a star, at worst he will give you 40 or 50 steals and a solid AVG.

4. Troy Tulowitzski-I am not a huge fan, but he puts up numbers at this position so I can’t justify ranking him any lower.

5. Derek Jeter-I’m shocked he makes the top five, but that short porch in Yankee Stadium and a contract year add up to his last year being ranked in the top five.

Bust Alert-For whatever reason I have watched Elvis Andrus going way too early, I think this is still a learning curve kinda year for him.

Sleeper Favorites-Nobody is giving any respect to Alexei Ramirez or Asdrubal Cabrera, so draft them late and thank me later.

Outfield: It’s not as deep as you think it is, also you are going to have to decide if you want a speed guy, and fast…because they go very quick.

1. Ryan Braun-I have never loved, him but it’s impossible with those kinda numbers to not have him first, look for him to be 30+HR and 110+RBI again.

2. Carl Crawford-If you want a “sure thing” base stealer you are going to have get em early, Crawford is going in the first late first round in most drafts…it’s a contract year so expect good things.

3. Matt Holiday-I just think his all around game offers a low risk, high reward gamble…you could do way worse than him as your best outfielder.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury-Speed strikes again, with the changes the Red Sox made, look for even more steals this year.

5. Grady Sizemore-Most people would go Justin Upton or maybe Ichiro here, but I still believe a healthy Grady Sizemore can deliver a 30/30 year…now his average, I don’t know.

Bust Alert-I know I may sound crazy but for where you have to draft Matt Kemp (mid-first round…like 5^th or 6^th overall) I just think he is a risk I don’t want to take, that Dodger lineup may be real thin after they yard-sale it before the trade deadline.

Sleeper Favorties-Some guys you can wait on but should be great are Carlos Lee (6^th round), Adam Dunn (ignore the AVG…8^th round), Josh Hamilton (worth the risk…8^th round), Carlos Beltran (again worth the risk…11^th round), and the speedy Michael Bourn (if you haven’t got speed by the 12^th round…this may be your last chance!).

Catcher: Lastly we have the catcher…the Tight End of Fantasy Baseball, last year I urged everyone to go after a catcher early…I ended up with Brian McCann and Geovany Soto (who I drafted WAY too early)…so one of those worked out…but I will stick with my strategy. Like Tight End in Football, there are only a handful of good ones, but everyone has to play one, so get yourself a top notch guy you can count on, and you have the upper hand at that position all year long. The trick is to know how far to reach, and when is too far. This year it’s slim-pickings, unless you’re willing to bet on guys who had awful years…I’m talking to you stupid Geovany Soto!

1. Joe Mauer-Good luck getting him he should be going in the 2^nd round, but all the mock drafts I have done he went in the first.

2. Brain McCann-Just a consistent player, good for 20HR, 90RBI, and a 290AVG

3. Victor Martinez-Love him hitting at Fenway all year, and he will get some DH and First Base starts for sure, helping him maintain his numbers.

4. Ryan Doumit-I think he bounces back with a good year, he is a great pure hitter.

5. Matt Wieters-OK ESPN has shoved this guy down our throat, but you can see the skill, good value in the 10^th/11^th round.

Bust Alert-Jorge Posada-This year scream injury unless he bats DH mostly.

Sleeper Favorites-Well he dropped down so far due his struggles last year, I can now say that Geovany Soto is a sleeper…look for him to return to form after he embarrassed himself last year (out of shape and lazy at the plate). I trust him more than Russell Martin who was just horrible last year.

Pitcher: Pitching, pitching, pitching…the key to success in the “Real World” of baseball may not be the same in the “Fantasy World”…I say wait, to me it’s just the right thing to do, all pitching is fairly risky and there are plenty of aces available in the 5^th and 6^th round, so try to be patient…but in all seriousness I can’t really argue that both Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay are 1^st/2^nd round guys.

1. Roy Halladay-If he doesn’t get hurt he wins 18 to 22 games.

2. Tim Lincecum-I think he can continue to put up crazy numbers, and I like the Giants to help him get a few more wins.

3. King Felix Hernandez-This guy is great…it’s him or Lester for the Cy Young.

4. Zack Grienke-I’m a believer in this guy, I hope he proves me right.

5. Jon Lester-This might be a little high putting him over C.C. Sabathia, but I really think this might be Lester’s year, I believe he gets 20 wins.

Bust Alert-I think there is danger in both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright…mostly because injuries just seem to linger around St. Louis pitchers.

Sleeper Favorites-Call me crazy but I like both Francisco Liriano and Roy Oswalt again this year…the word at spring training is I might be right.

I will have regular updates on my main baseball league, and give you the status of my others. I hope this information is helpful and I love comments so as always…feel free to tell me how wrong I am. I also highly endorse the ESPN Draft Kit and The Fantasy Focus Podcast free on Itunes…and also Yahoo’s rankings are also solid (but all of you know this). Have a great season in both fantasy and reality!!!